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US: less beef production, more pigs and poultry

The forecasts for total meat production for 2015 and 2016 are raised from last month. This is according to the USDA report: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (July 10).

Beef production for 2015 is lowered as fed cattle slaughter in the second quarter is reduced. In addition, relatively good forage conditions and higher feed prices are expected to slow the pace of placements until later in 2015, reducing available supplies of fed cattle for slaughter in late 2015. However, these large placements will lead to higher marketings and slaughter in 2016 and the beef production forecast is raised.

More pigs and poultry

The pork production forecast for 2015 is raised. Pig crop data in the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report supported a higher third-quarter 2015 slaughter forecast. The 2016 forecast is raised slightly. Broiler production for 2015 and 2016 is raised based on hatchery data and continued increases in bird weights. Turkey production is reduced for 2015 based on hatchery data. Egg production for 2015 is reduced slightly as lower table egg production more than offsets an expected increase in hatching egg production.

Effect on exports

Forecasts for beef imports for 2015 and 2016 are raised as demand for processing grade beef remains strong; the export forecast is reduced slightly on trade data to date. Pork imports for 2015 and 2016 are reduced and the export forecasts are raised. Broiler exports for 2015 are raised on improved demand and large supplies; no change is made to 2016. Turkey exports are reduced for 2015 as supplies are tight; no change is made to 2016.

High feed prices temper profit

Egg prices for 2015 are raised on tight supplies and prices to date but the forecast for 2016 is unchanged. The milk production forecast for 2015 is raised on a slightly more rapid increase in cow numbers and milk per cow. However, higher expected feed prices and weaker milk prices during late 2015 and 2016 are expected to temper the rate of growth in production and the 2016 production forecast is lowered. For 2016, the cheese price is unchanged, but the butter price is raised on expectations of robust domestic demand.

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