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USDA Outlook: Coarse grains

This month's global outlook for 2007/08 coarse grains includes lower production, increased trade, and lower ending stocks.

Global coarse grain production is projected 5.8 million tons lower this month, mostly reflecting adverse weather in southeastern Europe.

EU-27 corn output is lowered 6.8 million tons as extended drought and extreme heat in late June and July devastated crops in Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania.

Corn production is projected lower for FSU-12, Bosnia, Croatia, and Serbia, which were affected by similar weather conditions as the southeastern portions of EU-27.

Ukraine barley production is also lowered 1.3 million tons. Barley production for Canada is projected 0.5 million tons lower because of record July heat that affected key growing areas in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

US feed grains higher
The 2007/08 outlook for US feed grains is for higher production and increased use as tighter world coarse grain supplies boost export demand for US corn and sorghum.

USDA's first survey-based forecast for 2007 corn production is 13.1 billion bushels, up 214 million from last month's projection. Feed and residual use is raised 50 million bushels with the larger crop.

Corn exports are projected 150 million bushels higher reflecting strong world demand as global production is projected lower.

Ending stocks for US corn are projected at 1.5 billion bushels, up 14 million bushels from last month, and 379 million bushels higher than projected for 2006/07.

The season-average farm price is projected at $2.80 to $3.40 per bushel, unchanged from last month.

More sorghum projected
The first survey-based forecast for 2007 sorghum production is 475 million bushels, up 45 million from last month. Projected exports for 2007/08 are raised 40 million bushels based on strong world demand for feed grains and lower coarse grain production in EU-27.

The season-average farm price is projected 20 $cents higher on both ends of the range to $2.60 to $3.20 per bushel reflecting stronger expected export demand.

Global coarse grains traffic
Global coarse grain imports and exports for 2007/08 are both raised this month reflecting higher projected corn and sorghum trade mostly in response to reduced EU-27 production.

EU-27 corn imports are raised 2.5 million tons as reduced supplies and strong feeding demand are expected to boost demand for imported corn. EU-27 sorghum imports are also raised 1 million tons.

Global corn exports are projected 3.3-million-tons higher with increased US exports more than offsetting reductions for Russia and Serbia. Brazil corn exports are also raised 0.5 million tons. Global corn ending stocks for 2007/08 are projected 6.1 million tons lower this month.

US sorghum exports are raised 1 million tons mostly in response to stronger expected demand from EU-27.

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