News last update:6 Aug 2012

Global course grain projections up

World coarse grain production in 2008/09 is projected up 7.6 million tonnes to 1,094.3 million tonnes according to estimates of the economic Research Service of the US Department of Agriculture.

Much of the increase is in the United States, with foreign production up 2.9 million tonnes.

Foreign corn production is down 1.0 million tonnes this month, but barley production is up 3.0 million, oat production is up 0.8 million, and rye and sorghum production are up slightly.

Brazilian corn critical
Corn production prospects for 2008/09 in Brazil were cut 2.0 million tonnes to 55.0 million tonnes. Planting of the main crop is beginning, and the incentives to plant are not enough to maintain area.

Corn prices have been dropping worldwide, and a large, recently harvested second-season corn crop has depressed corn prices in Brazil.

Moreover, corn is expensive to grow, requiring more fertilizer than soybeans, the main alternative.

Tight credit and existing farm debt are also expected to restrict corn area planted in Brazil. Corn area harvested was cut 0.5 million hectares this month to 14.3 million, and is now showing a year-to-year decline.

EU corn up
EU-27 corn production is projected up 1.0 million tonnes this month to 59.2 million, tonnes mostly due to higher area and yields reported in France.

Belarus reported less area harvested for grain and more modest yields, trimming production 0.3 million tonnes.

This month, production was reviewed for Sub-Saharan Africa, resulting in small changes to many countries. The largest changes were a 0.5-million-ton increase for total corn use in Ghana, and a 0.4-million-ton decrease for Malawi.

Barley on the increase
World barley production projected for 2008/09 increased 3.5 million tonnes this month to 153.4 million tonnes.

EU-27 barley is forecast up 1.6 million tonnes to 64.4 million, the highest level in 11 years.

The largest increases are for Spain, Sweden, and France, all reporting increased yields, with Sweden also revising area up.

Russia's harvest reports increased barley area and yield, boosting forecast production 1.0 million tonnes to 22.0 million.

US barley production is raised 0.5 million tonnes to 5.2 million. Canada and Belarus also reported increased barley production.

Slight increase in oats crop
World oats production is up 0.8 million tonnes this month to 26.3 million. Russia's harvest reports indicated increased area harvested for grain, matching the previous year, and boosting production 0.4 million tonnes this month to 5.4 million.

Statistics Canada also reported increased oat area, boosting forecast production 0.2 million tonnes to 4.3 million.

Belarus reported a small production increase on higher yields.

World rye production projected for 2008/09 increased 0.3 million tonnes to 16.8 million, mostly due to small increases for Belarus and the EU-27.

World mixed grain production was reduced 0.4 million to 14.5 million due to a reduction in Poland.

Changes to foreign millet and sorghum production were small and mostly offsetting.

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