Rapeseed output for the EU-27 this year is expected to reach a record 19.5 million metric tonnes.
The revised forecast is 1.2 million tonnes higher than last month’s due mainly to larger expected crops in Germany (up 700,000 tonnes), Poland (up 200,000 tonnes), and France (up 115,000 tonnes).
Sown rapeseed area in all three countries increased this year, contributing to a near-record for EU area at 6.5 million hectares.
Early spring in northern Europe was somewhat dry. However, rapeseed yields benefited from the timely arrival of precipitation from late May through June, during the crop’s primary stages for flowering and pod filling.
Frequent rainfall throughout July disrupted harvesting, although farmers are now nearing completion of the rapeseed harvest.
Including carryover stocks and imports, the 2009/10 total supply of EU rapeseed is forecast at 23.4 million tonnes, which would eclipse last year’s record by 200,000 tonnes.
Large beginning stocks and production may limit rapeseed imports from outside of Europe.
EU rapeseed crush is also forecast 275,000 tonnes higher this month to a record 20.7 million, but much of the supply increase is seen supporting 2009/10 ending stocks at 1.6 million metric tonnes--down only 100,000 from the last year’s record.
In 2009/10, higher availability of rapeseed oil is forecast to raise its industrial use to 6.4 million tonnes, accounting for at least 70% of total domestic use.
Source: USDA Economic Research Service