World coarse grain production in 2009/10 is projected to reach 1,091.6 million tonnes (mil.t), up 8.2 mil.t, as a large increase in US corn production is partly offset by a 5.5 mil.t reduction in forecast foreign corn output.
Eastern Ukraine and the Southern District of Russia suffered hot dry weather during July that damaged reproductive corn in the region.
Area harvested for grain and projected yield are reduced for both countries, cutting corn production in Russia 1.5 mil. t to 5.0 mil. and trimming corn output in Ukraine 1.0 mil. t to 8.5 mil.
Mexico projections down
In Mexico, rainfall so far has been below normal, especially across the Central Plateau, and temperatures have been above normal, hurting the development of corn.
A strengthening El Niño in the Pacific is associated with continuing dry conditions across the key central corn region.
The yield forecast for Mexico’s corn is reduced from trend to the 5-year average, cutting projected production 1.5 mil. t this month to 22.5 mil.
South Africa fears El Niño
In South Africa, the prospect of El Niño-generated dryness is contributing to a lack of producer enthusiasm for planting corn. Corn area is cut 13% this month, reducing production prospects 1.0 mil.t to 10.5 million.
Dry, hot weather during reproduction hurt corn yield potential in Serbia, cutting production 0.5 mil.t to 6.0 million.
In the EU, heat and drought in Spain cut corn production potential, more than offsetting improved prospects in countries with good rainfall, like Germany. EU corn production is down 0.25 mil.t to 56.2 million.
This month the only non-U.S. increase in corn production prospects was for El Salvador, up 0.3 mil.t to 0.9 million as the historical series for area and yield was revised.
Other coarse grains
Sorghum production outside the US increased 0.75 mil.t to 52.8 million and barley production increased 0.5 mil.t this month to 138.2 million.
Foreign rye production is increased 0.4 mil.t to 16.4 mil. as favourable growing conditions across Northern Europe boosted EU prospects. Oats production is down 0.5 mil.t this month to 21.8 million.
Source: Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture