News last update:6 Aug 2012

USDA Outlook: Oilseeds

Global oilseed production for 2007/08 is projected at 391.3 million tons, down 4.4 million tons from last month, and down 13.7 million tons from 2006/07.

Foreign production is reduced 4.4 million tons from last month. Soybean production for China is projected at 15.2 million tons, down 0.4 million due to dry weather in the northeastern producing area.

Rapeseed production is reduced for Canada and EU-27. Hot, dry weather in Canada and wet harvest weather in EU-27 have reduced yield prospects.

Crop projections for both remain above last year's levels due to sharply higher planted area.

Global sunflowerseed production is reduced 8% this month due to sharp reductions for Russia, Ukraine, and EU-27. Production estimates are reduced due to lower planted area in Russia and hot, dry July weather in Ukraine and EU-27.

US changes for 2006/07 include higher soybean exports and crush. Exports are raised 10 million bushels. Crush is raised 15 million bushels reflecting stronger-than- expected domestic soybean meal disappearance and exports.

With higher use, carryover drops 25 million bushels to 575 million bushels. The season-average soybean price is raised 5 cents per bushel to $6.40 per bushel.

US oilseeds
US oilseed production for 2007/08 is projected at 80.2 million tons, down fractionally from last month as lower cottonseed production is nearly offset by higher peanut production.

Soybean yields are forecast at 41.5 bushels per acre, 1.2 bushels below last year.

The first survey-based forecast of US soybean production is 2.63 billion bushels, unchanged from the July projection, and 563 million bushels below last year's crop.

Soybean stocks are projected at 220 million bushels, down from 245 million last month reflecting reduced carry-in.

Soybean crush remains unchanged as reduced soybean meal export prospects are offset by increased domestic soybean meal disappearance. Soybean oil stocks are raised this month, reflecting an increase in beginning stocks.

Projected price unchanged
The projected US season-average soybean price is unchanged at $7.25 to $8.25 per bushel. Projected prices for soybean meal and soybean oil also are unchanged at $200 to $230 per short ton and 32 to 36 cents per pound, respectively.

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