News last update:7 Aug 2012

USDA Outlook: Wheat

Global 2007/08 wheat production is projected 1.9 million tons lower this month as reduced production in EU-27, the United States, Canada, Turkey, and Brazil more than offset higher production in India and FSU-12.

EU-27 production is lowered 1.7 million tons as persistent, heavy rain during harvest reduces yield prospects in France and Germany, and persistent drought and heat reduce yield prospects in Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania.

Production for Canada is projected 1 million tons lower as hot, dry weather in July reduced prospects for spring wheat in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Output for Turkey and Brazil is lowered, respectively, 0.5 million tons and 0.2 million tons.

Production in India is raised 1.19 million tons in line with official government estimates.

FSU-12 output is raised 1.25 million tons with harvest results indicating higher-than-expected winter wheat production in Ukraine, and July precipitation increasing yield potential for spring wheat in Russia and Kazakstan.

US projections
Projected US 2007/08 ending stocks are down 14 million bushels reflecting lower production. Winter wheat production is lowered 25 million bushels, partly on lower harvested area in Kansas. Spring wheat (including durum) production is nearly unchanged.

Feed and residual use is projected 35 million bushels lower as increased hard red winter wheat abandonment reduces supplies of feed wheat and higher prices make feeding less attractive.

Exports are raised 25 million bushels as reduced world supplies boost prospects for US wheat exports and prices.

The season-average price is projected at $5.10 to $5.70 per bushel, up 30 cents on each end of the range from last month.

Global wheat traffic
World imports and exports for 2007/08 are both increased this month. Most of the 0.7-million-ton increase in world imports results from an increase of 0.5 million tons for EU-27. With lower production, EU-27 is expected to import more wheat.

World exports are projected 1.2 million tons higher with increases for the United States, Russia, and Australia. Exports for Russia and Australia are projected up 0.5 million tons each, more than offsetting a 0.5-million-ton reduction for EU-27.

Lower production and increased consumption contribute to a reduction in projected global ending stocks, down 1.8 million tons from last month.

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