News last update:6 Aug 2012

Outlook: World coarse grains on the rise

World coarse grains production for 2007/08 is projected to reach 1.062 million tonnes, up 2 million tonnes this month, according to the September USDA Feed Outlook report.

This modest increase masks a 7-million-ton increase for US production and a 5-million-ton decline in foreign output. The largest 2007/08 foreign production decline was for the EU-27, dropping 3.2 million tonnes to 135.0 million.

Forecast corn production was reduced 1.5 million tonnes, with reductions for Romania (-0.5 million), Bulgaria (-0.42 million), Hungary (-0.4 million), Spain (-0.3 million), and Italy (-0.2 million) more than offsetting small upward revisions to other EU countries.
Hot, dry growing conditions during the summer in Southeast Europe damaged the corn crop, and that damage is becoming clearer as the plants mature.

EU barley crop down
The EU-27 barley production forecast dropped 1.2 million tonnes this month to 57.3 million. The harvest is virtually complete, and country harvest reports are indicating reductions mostly caused by rain during the harvest.

Declines for France, Germany, and several others countries more than offset an increase in Spain. EU-27 production forecasts for mixed grains and oats were also reduced this month.

Fewer corn plantings in Argentina
Prospects for 2007/08 corn production in Argentina were reduced 1.5 million tonnes to 22.5 million because the price of corn has declined compared with oilseeds, moderating the expected increase in corn planted area. Corn harvested area is now forecast to increase 7% over (2009/07) instead of 14%.

China's 2007/08 corn production prospects were trimmed 1 million tonnes to 147 million due to hot, dry conditions in parts of the Northeast corn belt. Australia's 2007/08 barley crop projection was cut 1 million tonnes to 8 million as a dry, warm winter and early spring have reduced yield prospects. Forecast barley production for Turkey was dropped 0.8 million tonnes to 6.5 million as harvest reports indicated low yields caused by dryness.

Brazil corn up
These and smaller reductions in projected 2007/08 coarse grains production more than offset increases for Brazil and the former Soviet Union (FSU). Brazil's projected corn production was increased 1 million tonnes to 51 million because corn prices in Brazil have been boosted by strong exports to the EU-27, which prefers non-GMO corn.

Coarse grains production in the FSU was boosted 0.8 million tonnes to 53.3 million by a 0.5-million-ton increase for Belarus (barley, rye, and oats) and an increase for oats in Russia.

For full report read USDA Outlook

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