Process Management

News last update:6 Aug 2012

Global wheat forecast slightly raised

Global 2007/08 wheat production is raised 0.6 million tonnes this month according to the latest forecast of the Economic Research Service of the US Department of Agriculture.

Reduction of crop forecast in Afghanistan (minus 0.6 million tonnes) was more than offset with increases in Argentina and FSU-12. Production for Argentina is raised 0.5 million tonnes based on higher harvested area. FSU-12 output is raised 0.9 million tonnes with increases for Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine, all based on post-harvest revisions to yields.

Lower stocks
Global ending stocks for 2007/08 are lowered 1.2 million tonnes. At 109.7 million tonnes, stocks are projected to reach their lowest level in 30 years.
Lower ending stocks in Canada, FSU-12, and the United States are only partly offset by higher stocks in Australia. Ending stocks are raised 0.7 million tonnes for Australia based on higher production and carryout from 2006/07. Australia production for 2006/07 is raised to 10.6 million tonnes from 9.9 million based on the latest estimates by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Coarse grains
World coarse grain supplies for 2007/08 are projected slightly higher this month as lower corn production is more than offset by higher sorghum, oats, and rye production. Corn production is lowered 1.0 million tonnes for Argentina as extended dryness during the first weeks of January reduced yield prospects.

Corn production for Mexico is lowered 0.7 million tonnes based on lower harvested area. South Africa corn output is raised 1.0 million tonnes as nearly ideal planting and early growing season weather have supported crop development.

Sorghum production is raised for Mexico on higher area. Sorghum production is increased for Australia on higher expected yields as rains over the past several weeks have dramatically improved growing conditions for summer crops there.

Oats and rye production are raised for Russia based on the latest government statistics. A number of small changes to individual country production estimates leave global barley output virtually unchanged this month.

Global oilseed production for 2007/08 is projected at 390.3 million tonnes, up 0.6 million tonnes from last month. Higher rapeseed, sunflowerseed, and cottonneseed production more than offset reduced soybean production. Global soybean production is reduced 0.3 million tonnes to 220.1 million tonnes. Bolivia's soybean crop is reduced 0.3 million tonnes reflecting excessive rains and flooding that have reduced projected harvested area and yields.

Global rapeseed production is raised 0.2 million tonnes to 48.5 million due to larger projected crops for EU-27 and India. While harvested area is projected higher for both, the area increase for India is partly offset by lower yields.

Global sunflowerseed production is projected higher due to increases for Argentina and Ukraine.

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