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News last update:14 Jan 2016

USDA raises Brazilian soybean output estimate

The USDA’s Brazilian bureau has increased its estimate for soyabean production in the Latin American country this year by one million tonnes to a record 83mt, up from 66.5mt in 2011/12, reducing concerns over output of the oilseed after lack of rain in recent weeks.

Brazil’s 2012/13 planting is considered 99% completed, the bureau said, and at a rate a few percentage points ahead of the five-year historic average. Crop conditions are rated “good” across all major producing regions although some isolated areas are receiving less than desirable rainfall and as a result lower crop ratings.

The upgraded production estimate is around 2mt above the USDA’s recent estimate of 81mt in its December WASDE report. The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture’s Food Supply Company (CONAB) estimated soyabean production at 82.6mt in its December 2012/13 crop survey.

The USDA bureau has also increased its Brazilian soyabean export forecast by 500.000 tonnes to 39mt. This would make the Latin American nation the world’s biggest shipper of the oilseed, surpassing the expected 36.6mt from the US and 21% up on last season’s foreign sales.

The national 2012/13 soyabean crop is now estimated at over 50% forward sold compared with the five-year average of approximately 30% sold at this time in the crop season. “Spurred by a favourable exchange rate and futures prices, contracts for March delivery were

The bureau acknowledged that although the top three producing states in the country, Mato Grosso, Parana and Rio Grande do Sul that combined account for 60% of overall output have all seen “good” conditions in the past few weeks, the centre, west and northeast regions have seen less than desirable rainfall.


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