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Lower grain harvest forecast; stable wheat prices

No record harvest of wheat is expected in the European Union, no heavy harvest pressure is noticeable on the market.

The wheat harvest has started in large parts of Europe. Threshing has already been going on for some time in the southern European countries. Harvest work went fast when it was dry and precipitation was a bit calmer here and there. No heavy harvest pressure is noticeable on the market.

The International Grains Council (IGC) wheat price index rose above 180 points late last week. That is the highest level in more than a month. Photo: Peter Roek
The International Grains Council (IGC) wheat price index rose above 180 points late last week. That is the highest level in more than a month. Photo: Peter Roek

No record wheat harvest

As no record harvest is expected in the European Union, the supply of grain sold on the market is not huge. The old harvest has been cleaned up considerably and therefore no longer puts pressure on prices. The new harvest is well absorbed by the industry.

Wheat prices remain at the same level

Yields in Germany seem reasonable and the quality is good. Growers do not sell much wheat and the industry has to replenish stocks even further, which is partly why prices remain at the same level. The International Grains Council (IGC) wheat price index rose above 180 points late last week. That is the highest level in more than a month. It is therefore expected that prices will remain fairly stable in the coming weeks.

Higher transport prices due to low water levels in rivers

Low water levels are expected in Europe in the Moselle, Rhine and Danube. These rivers are an important transport route for wheat, barley and corn. Although the water levels are not yet too low, transport prices are already rising. This is because the loads are already fully booked this week, because low water is expected after the weekend.

Russian wheat more expensive

The international market also has a wait-and-see attitude. As in Europe, the yields in Russia are not high. Russian wheat production forecast has been cut in recent weeks, after expectations were overly optimistic last month. Prices for Russian wheat for the world market have increased partly due to the lower harvest forecasts.

Futures market:
Overview of futures prices for: corn, wheat and soybean

Less sales

Russia exported the first period of the new sales season (July 1 to July 9) more than 70% less than a year earlier. Exporters are expected to have limited sales in July and August and to accelerate in the autumn, market agency SovEcon reports. Cereal exports from the EU amount to 373,981 tonnes from 1 July to 12 July. That is 63% less compared to the same period a year earlier.

This week the forecast is: grain market price is stable