Outlook: More foreign grains

20-11-2007 | |

USDA increased world coarse grains trade forecast for 2007/08 this month and is expected to reach record-high levels despite record coarse grains prices and very high freight rates.

World coarse grains production projected for 2007/08 increased 1.1 million
tonnes (mt) this month to 1,054.4 mt, as a reduction in US corn prospects was
more than offset by foreign increases. Foreign coarse grains production
prospects increased 4.5 mt to 700.7 mt.

The largest change in foreign
production forecast for 2007/08 was a dramatic decline in Nigeria. Reduced area
planted and dryness during critical growth stages cut corn production prospects
there by 2.5 mt to 6.5 mt. Sorghum was also hurt by dryness, and Nigeria’s
coarse grains production was reduced 3.2 mt this month to 24.0

Drought continued into October in parts of Australia, reducing barley
production prospects a further 0.7 mt this month to 5.5 mt. However, good rains
for planting in the sorghum region boosted area and production prospects

Higher corn harvest in China
Harvest reports
indicated increased production across many countries. Provincial reports from
China indicated larger-than-previously expected corn area planted and good
yields, boosting projected corn production 2.0 mt to 145.0 mt.

rains in Ethiopia boosted coarse grains production prospects 1.7 mt to 10.8 mt,
with increases for corn, sorghum and barley. EU-27 coarse grains production
prospects increased 1.3 mt this month to 135.2 mt as increases for corn in Italy
and France more than offset declines in Hungary and Romania.

monsoon rains and attractive prices boosted India’s corn production prospects
0.8 mt to 4.8 mt. Harvest reports from Mexico, supported by good growing
conditions in key growing areas, boosted sorghum area and yields, increasing
projected production 0.6 mt to 6.0 mt.

Better than expected corn yields
were reported in Ukraine, boosting production 0.5 mt to 7.0 million. Yields,
however, remain down year-to-year for Ukraine as some regions suffered from
drought Belarus corn production was added to the database for several years,
reaching 0.4 mt forecast for 2007/08.

Good rains boosted Niger millet
production 0.3 mt to 3.2 mt and Malawi corn production 0.25 mt to 3.4 million.
Other changes were smaller.

Source: USDA

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