We forecast that Ukraine’s oilseed crushing capacity in 2012 may reach 12.5 Ml tones and 13-14 Ml tones by 2015.
Though quite large vertical holdings were formed in the crushing industry, mergers and acquisitions continue in Ukrainian food sector. The purpose of the expansion is improvement of business efficiency, increase in capitalization and attraction of additional investments.
Together with continuously growing demand for sunflower, its production lags behind with increasing domestic prices paid by the crushers to farmers and quite sharp decline of the industry margins in 2011/12. Production margin of Russian oil producers is much higher.
The Study is focused on the following issues:
- Is sunflower oil import to Ukraine possible? Is sunflower supply crisis close?
- Lowering crushers’ margins – is it the first sign of the market evolution?
- How likely is the growth of sunflower yield to 15 million tons (nearly by 50%) by 2015?
- Is sunflower still a “king of fields”? Is restructuring of the oilseed production possible in short-term?
- Soy or rapeseed? Model of the U.S. crop rotation – corn / soybeans – a response to new demand or a new challenge?
- Will the increased competition displace some enterprises from the market?
- Existing strategies for farmers and sun oil producers. Review.
- Threat of supply crisis. Port crushers/export terminals.
- Vertical integration, improvement of market tools efficiency, the role of infrastructure in potential crisis prevention.
The Study includes:
- Oilseed crushing capacity in the context of crops, regions and enterprises. Map of facilities;
- Oilseeds crushing / oil production in the context of crops, regions and companies;
- Major industrial groups. Construction of new plants, projects and intentions;
- International experience and concentration of oil-extracting industry;
- Strategies for the largest industrial groups in the face of increasing competition. Analysis of trends in the 21st century;
- Inputs base for Ukrainian oil extraction industry. Growth rates, key trends;
- S&D balances for oilseeds and vegetable oils;
- Handling of vegetable oils in the Black Sea ports;
- Characteristics of transshipment capacities. Construction of new facilities for oil handling;
- Dynamics of export shipments of sunflower oil over the past three seasons. Current and future markets. Exporters rating;
The Study “Crushing Industry of Ukraine: Supply Crisis and Companies’ Strategies” is based on official statistical data, surveys/interviews of major market operators in Ukraine/Russia and other countries, as well as own estimates and projections of commodity market analyst UkrAgroConsult.