Preliminary estimates of total grain exports from Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan in the season 2015/16 is 64 million tonnes, which is 6 million tonnes less than in the current season, stated Elena Loshkareva, analyst from the Ukraine analytical agency ‘UkrAgroConsult’, at the XII International Conference ‘Black Sea Grain-2015’.
The analyst also noted that the share of the Black Sea region in the world grain trade continues to remain high, despite the growth of world exports, increase in global competition and export restrictions in Russia.
This season, it was about 23%, which is close to the record of 2011/12 season. The share of the region in world exports of corn grows even more noticeably, given the significant increase in production in Ukraine and Russia and a fairly high global demand. In 2014/15, the figure will be about 40%.
According to Loshkareva, the total grain production in the Black Sea region in 2015 could reach about 164 million tonnes, which is 17 million tonnes less than in the current season. The final result will be affected by weather conditions, currency fluctuations, the presence or absence of state export regulations, as well as growing competition between the Black Sea region countries.
Elena Loshkareva also stressed that the forecasted figure of grain harvest in Ukraine is about 52.53 million tonnes of grains, including 20.6 million tonnes of wheat (22.5 million tonnes last year), in Russia – 97 million tonnes, in Kazakhstan – at the level of ‘average long-term’ (16-17 million tonnes).