Global course grain projections up

22-10-2008 | |
Global course grain projections up

World coarse grain production in 2008/09 is projected up 7.6 million tonnes to 1,094.3 million tonnes according to estimates of the economic Research Service of the US Department of Agriculture.

Much of the increase is in the United States, with foreign production up 2.9
million tonnes.

Foreign corn production is down 1.0 million tonnes this
month, but barley production is up 3.0 million, oat production is up 0.8
million, and rye and sorghum production are up slightly.

corn critical
Corn production prospects for 2008/09 in Brazil were
cut 2.0 million tonnes to 55.0 million tonnes. Planting of the main crop is
beginning, and the incentives to plant are not enough to maintain

Corn prices have been dropping worldwide, and a large, recently
harvested second-season corn crop has depressed corn prices in

Moreover, corn is expensive to grow, requiring more fertilizer
than soybeans, the main alternative.

Tight credit and existing farm debt
are also expected to restrict corn area planted in Brazil. Corn area harvested
was cut 0.5 million hectares this month to 14.3 million, and is now showing a
year-to-year decline.

EU corn up
EU-27 corn production is
projected up 1.0 million tonnes this month to 59.2 million, tonnes mostly due to
higher area and yields reported in France.

Belarus reported less area
harvested for grain and more modest yields, trimming production 0.3 million

This month, production was reviewed for Sub-Saharan Africa,
resulting in small changes to many countries. The largest changes were a
0.5-million-ton increase for total corn use in Ghana, and a 0.4-million-ton
decrease for Malawi.

Barley on the increase
World barley
production projected for 2008/09 increased 3.5 million tonnes this month to
153.4 million tonnes.

EU-27 barley is forecast up 1.6 million tonnes to
64.4 million, the highest level in 11 years.

The largest increases are
for Spain, Sweden, and France, all reporting increased yields, with Sweden also
revising area up.

Russia’s harvest reports increased barley area and
yield, boosting forecast production 1.0 million tonnes to 22.0

US barley production is raised 0.5 million tonnes to 5.2
million. Canada and Belarus also reported increased barley

Slight increase in oats crop
World oats production
is up 0.8 million tonnes this month to 26.3 million. Russia’s harvest reports
indicated increased area harvested for grain, matching the previous year, and
boosting production 0.4 million tonnes this month to 5.4

Statistics Canada also reported increased oat area, boosting
forecast production 0.2 million tonnes to 4.3 million.

Belarus reported a
small production increase on higher yields.

World rye production
projected for 2008/09 increased 0.3 million tonnes to 16.8 million, mostly due
to small increases for Belarus and the EU-27.

World mixed grain
production was reduced 0.4 million to 14.5 million due to a reduction in

Changes to foreign millet and sorghum production were small and
mostly offsetting.