The wheat price took off last week. In the futures markets, trading in December contracts lost around – 6% on the price of the week before.
In Chicago, prices are again below the level of just before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Prices in Paris have also fallen to near the price level in February.
On Friday, August 19, the downward price trend was broken. Which was followed by slightly higher prices at the beginning of this week. At the lower levels, people are still stepping in resulting in some price recovery. The most traded contract in Paris (December 2022) bounced around €3 to €313 per tonne early in the afternoon on Monday. In Chicago, trade started a fraction higher at around € 283 per ton.
For a long time, it was unclear how the grain from the Black Sea region could be marketed in the coming months. Now that ships from Odessa, among others, are crossing the Black Sea again, that has allayed some concerns.
In addition, there is gradually more faith in the sale of Russian grain. The Russians harvest a record amount of grains, but many buyers have not dared to buy in Russia lately because they are afraid of reactions from other countries. Since the deal that makes export of Ukrainian grain via the Black Sea possible again, grain purchases in Russia seem to be less under the magnifying glass.
The indicative prices for the export of Russian wheat have now fallen to around € 355 per tonne. This means that the prices are about € 40 lower than in mid-July. Russian exporters will see their competitiveness increase as a result, because export duties have now fallen to around €80 per tonne. Until recently, they had to pay more than €100 per tonne to the Russian state.