Soft wheat production in the European Union will increase by 2.7% in 2023 to 128.9 million tonnes. This is according the initial estimations of grain trade organisation Coceral.
This estimation is based on an area of growth of 1.9% to 22.25 million hectares. Yields per hectare are currently estimated at 5.79 tonnes per hectare. The latter is less than 1% above the level achieved this year.
Higher yields are expected in Spain in particular, because drought limited the harvest there last year. For the time being, the traders are now aiming for yields of 3.65 tonnes per hectare in Spain. Last year, the harvest stalled at 2.75 tons per hectare.
In France, production is expected to increase by 1.4% to 34.1 million tonnes. This is mainly due to an increase in the area to 4.74 million hectares.
In Germany, Coceral predicts a harvest of almost 22.9 million tons (+1.7%). The assumption being a larger acreage and slightly lower yields per hectare.
In the Netherlands, the grain trade is currently assuming larger deviations compared to last year. After the high yields in the summer of 2022, Coceral is provisionally aiming for 9.5 tonnes per hectare (-7.8%) for 2023. The area, on the other hand, is estimated to be 6.4% larger, so that the decrease in total production is limited to 1.9% to 1.26 million tonnes.
According to Coceral’s estimate, there will be less competition from the United Kingdom. According to the first estimate, the harvest on the other side of the North Sea will be almost 6% smaller, because lower yields are assumed. The area there is not expected to change much.