French wheat soars while other forecasts fall
France is expecting its biggest wheat closing stocks in over 2 decades. Meanwhile, Ukraine and Russia face downward harvest revisions. Global wheat markets respond to shifting production outlooks.
Harvest forecasts in France were adjusted upwards, those of Ukraine and Russia were lowered.
Record French wheat stocks
The French agricultural authority FranceAgriMer issued a new forecast for the 2025-’26 season. Closing stocks of common wheat in France will rise to the highest level in 21 years. The reason is an expected significantly higher production.
Output up 27% in France
Stocks of common wheat in France will rise to 3.87 million tonnes, according to FranceAgriMer. That would be an increase of 66% compared to 2024-25. The agency took into account a forecast from the French Ministry of Agriculture, which expects soft wheat production to increase by 27% this year to 32.6 million tons.
Global forecast Adjustments
Earlier, the USDA (the US Department of Agriculture) increased its forecast for the wheat harvest in the EU, Russia, Kazakhstan and Pakistan. Expectations were adjusted downwards for Canada, Ukraine and Iran. According to the USDA, this results in slightly smaller global production.
Market reacts to uncertainty
Wheat prices on Euronext recovered last week from lows in early July. The main reason for the price increase was the uncertain prospects for the harvests in Ukraine and Russia. Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Agriculture Taras Vysotskyi expects wheat production in his country for 2025 of 21.2 million tons. The USDA estimated 22 million tons on July 11.
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