International Grains Council cuts global grain crops and stock projections

Rising disease levels and drought stress in parts of the southern hemisphere on maize output prompted the IGC to cut 2023/4 global grain production by 3.5 Mt. Meanwhile, stronger wheat demand in India is the main factor pushing up the global grain demand estimate.

2023/4 carry-out stocks

The changes mean a sharper fall in 2023/4 carry-out stocks than forecasts a month ago, which would reduce the cushion to any production issues in 2024/5. In total, global grain stocks at the end of 2023/4 are projected 8.4 Mt lower than the IGCs March report. This is made up of a 4.8 Mt fall for maize and 3.6 Mt decline for wheat.

2024/5 global grain crop production projection

The IGC has also projected an even sharper cut to the 2024/5 global grain crop production projection, expecting it to be 10.1 Mt lower to 2,322.1 Mt, due mainly to a smaller US maize figure and likely factors in the results of US planting intentions. The USA revealed earlier this month that US farmers intend to plant 36.4 Mha of maize which was less than the 37.1 Mha the market estimated. EU wheat production was also cut by 1.8 Mt to 128.7 Mt.

Lower US feed demand

Helen Plant, Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board senior analyst, said despite the cuts total global grain production in 2023/4 was still projected 21.3 Mt higher year-on-year and could set a new record. Demand is expected to rise by less than projected in March, mainly due to lower US feed demand.

Soy supply & demand

In contrast, the global soyabean supply and demand picture for both this season and next continues to look heavy. The IGC increased its 2023/4 end of season stock projection for soyabeans by 0.3 Mt and the 2024/5 projection by 0.5 Mt, largely due to larger Argentinian crop forecasts. Weather events could change this but, in their absence, the heavy stocks are likely to keep pressure on soyabean prices.

Rapeseed prices

The extent of the impact on rapeseed prices will depend on prospects for the 2024/5 rapeseed crops. Rapeseed has recently expanded its price gap over soyabeans.

Next projections are expected from the USDA on 10 May and the IGC on 23 May.