The rapeseed price has been under considerable pressure over the past 2 weeks. On Monday, February 5, the Paris futures market closed at its lowest level since October 2023, when the November price level fell below €400.00 per ton.
Following falling soybean prices, the futures market quotation fell to around €414 per ton at the beginning of this week. The contract thus lost €26.00 in value in just 2 weeks, or a decline of 6%. The soy complex recovered somewhat on Monday and this now also seems to be happening with rapeseed. In morning trading on Tuesday, February 6, almost €5 was added again and the price of the May contract rose to around €419 per ton.
In Brazil, the soybean harvest is progressing well. That’s because it is warm with little rain. However, this also means that people are starting to worry about the yield potential of crops that will soon be harvested.
This also applies to soy in Argentina. After last year’s crop failure, large production is expected there. However, a heat wave seems to be tempering the high expectations. In the past week, crops have deteriorated considerably due to the heat. At the end of January, the Buenos Aires futures market increased the harvest forecast for Argentine soy to 52.5 million tons. It was already noted that the amount of precipitation in the coming period would determine whether that level can be achieved.
As for rapeseed, the French consultancy Strategy Grains has announced a much lower harvest forecast for this season in the European Union than last year. For the time being, the consultancy is aiming for a harvest of 18.4 million tons. This is 1.4 million tons or 7% less than last year. The decrease is mainly the result of a smaller area, especially in Eastern Europe. The consultancy concludes that the EU must import more rapeseed from Australia and Ukraine, among others, in the 2024-25 season.