Rapeseed price rises above €430 per tonne

The rapeseed quotation on the Paris futures market returns to price levels above € 430.00 per tonne. This means that the price on the futures market is considerably higher than the low point of just above € 400.00 per tonne at the end of February.

Rapeseed benefits from rising prices for soya and palm oil. In addition, there are also rapeseed-related messages that further support the pricing of the product. The prices of the new harvest also benefit fully from this.

Reduction of rapeseed harvest estimate

One of those messages comes from the French market consultancy Strategy Grains. This agency lowers its harvest estimate for rapeseed in the European Union. Based on a smaller area, Strategy Grains now predicts a harvest of 18.3 million tonnes in the EU. This means production is 8% lower than last year.

Such a reduction certainly has an impact on the market. Last year the EU was the largest producer of rapeseed in the world with a market share of more than 20%. At 19.8 million tonnes, the harvest in the EU member states was slightly larger than production in Canada. China and India follow at a slightly greater distance.

Lower production in the EU means that the need for imports increases, because consumption here exceeds production. In the 2023-2024 season, rapeseed consumption is estimated at 24.6 million tonnes. This amounts to an import requirement of about 6 million tonnes, because a small part of the EU rapeseed is also exported.

Import from Ukraine

For the time being, the import need cannot be met with rapeseed from Russia, because Russia has just extended the export ban on rapeseed until the end of August. The Russians want to stimulate their own processing. And the supply from Australia will also not be as simple. The country expects a slightly larger harvest, but shipping will be difficult if the shipping route via the Red Sea continues to cause problems.

This means that imports remain mainly dependent on Ukraine. With a share of almost 70%, that country is by far the largest supplier of rapeseed in the EU. However, the old harvest in Ukraine is sold out and so we have to wait for the new harvest. The area of ​​summer rapeseed is expected to expand considerably.