In the September publication of the Wasde report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) adjusts global wheat production downwards to 787 million tons.
Mainly due to lower yields in Australia, Argentina, Europe and Canada. Increased Ukrainian wheat production somewhat offsets the decline. Wheat stocks suitable for export are less abundant, which means that the stocks of importing countries are also shrinking. Wheat suitable for animal feed has been increased in the world balance for Europe and China. This is due to wet weather during the harvest period, which has resulted in more wheat of lower quality coming off the land than expected.
The global ending stock for 2023-24 has been revised downwards significantly to 259 million tons (-7 million tons). The stock has not been this low since 2015-’16. Milling wheat prices on the Paris futures market moved higher on Wednesday, September 13. But the supply of Russian wheat is slowing price increases on the grain market. The USDA keeps the Russian wheat harvest at 85 million tons, Russian analysts expect at least 90 million tons of wheat. Physical grain prices were therefore under pressure this week. Feed wheat was recorded lower earlier this week.
The USDA mentions another important change in the global grain trade: less barley is available. This is partly because Canada will export less barley in 2023-24.
The USDA further increases corn stocks to 314 million tons worldwide for the 2023-24 season. That is 14.5 million tons more than was harvested a year earlier. US corn production was expected to decline in this latest Wasde report, but because the acreage has increased, production has been adjusted slightly upwards. The quotations for corn therefore remain under pressure.