US increases wheat consumption forecast

15-12-2023 | |
Photo: Canva
Photo: Canva

Expectations regarding global wheat consumption are improving again. This is evident from the latest Wasde grain report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

In the December issue, USDA reports a higher estimate of feed consumption in the European Union, Thailand and South Korea compared to last month’s estimate. In addition, it is thought that China will consume more wheat through human nutrition and industrial use.

Slightly more wheat consumption

Last year, global wheat consumption stagnated at 792 million tons, according to USDA figures. This year, consumption appears to increase slightly, although the difference is still limited to less than 3 million tons. In percentage terms, this amounts to an increase of 0.3 to 0.4%. Since the jump of almost 5% to a consumption of 782 million tons in 2020-21, not much has changed in global wheat consumption.

The wheat production figure has also increased slightly compared to November. The new indication assumes a global harvest of 783 million tons in 2023-24. The increase is due to higher official yield expectations in Australia and Canada. This is offset by a lower estimate in Brazil.

Australia and Canada: Lower wheat harvests

In Australia, a harvest of 25.5 million tons is now expected, which is 1 million tons more than the November USDA estimate. Despite this adjustment, this remains a very small harvest. Last year, Australia harvested a record harvest of more than 40 million tons. In Canada, the forecast has been adjusted to almost 32 million tons. This also remains less than the harvest of 34.4 million tons in 2022-23.

The estimate for Brazil now remains at 8.4 million tons in 2023-24, while a month ago it was still expected to be 9.4 million tons. The previous season the harvest there amounted to 10.6 million tons of wheat.

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John Ramaker Commodities market editor, Boerderij