USDA: Grain market balanced next season

21-05-2021 | Updated on 21-02 | |
Photo: Hans Prinsen
Photo: Hans Prinsen

Supply and demand will be in balance on the global grain market next season.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), a record 2,790 million tons of grain (including rice) will be harvested in 2021-22. While consumption is estimated at 2,791 million tons. That is a difference of only 1 million tons. While this current 2020-21 season, world production lags behind consumption by 27 million tons.

The USDA reports this in the latest Wasde forecast with an overview of the supply and demand of agricultural raw materials. The USDA is now for the first time estimating the new 2021-22 season, which will start in Europe on July 1. The latest forecast pushed wheat, corn and soybean prices down on agricultural futures markets after they had risen sharply in recent weeks.

Global wheat havests

In 2021-22 the wheat market will be in balance, with a supply and demand of 789 million tons. This means that the wheat supply in the world remains stable, but no longer reaches the record of 2 years ago.

The EU will soon harvest 134 million tons of wheat, the USDA estimates (126 million tons this season). The EU has 33 million tons of wheat available for export (30 million tons this season). The USDA estimates that Russia will harvest 85 million tons of wheat and export 40 million tons of it. That is the same as this season. Market analysts have criticised this USDA estimate because wheat has been wintered in Russia and is expected to be less harvested and exported.

Corn and soybeans: Production forecasts

For maize, the USDA expects world production of 1,190 million tons next season to be more than enough to meet consumption (1,181 million tons). The high prices in recent months have encouraged growers, especially in the US, to sow more corn than previously estimated. For soybeans, too, the USDA expects production (386 million tons) to be more than enough to cover consumption (381 million tons) in the new season.

Jan Engwerda Arable farming reporter
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