The FAO, or the World Food Organization of the United Nations, is not concerned about possible shortages on the world wheat market. On the contrary, it increased its forecasts and estimates for global wheat production in the 2025-26 season.
The latest forecast (from July 4) rose to 805.3 million tonnes. The FAO forecast on June 6 indicated 800.1 million tons.
The increase is mainly due to recent data from India and Pakistan indicating higher yields. In India there is even record production.
The FAO forecast for world wheat stocks by the end of the season in 2026 has been increased from 310 to 321 million tonnes since last month. The increase is mainly due to rising inventories in Australia, China, Pakistan, Russia and the US.
It is therefore no coincidence that Russia has cancelled its export duties, which were introduced partly to combat shortages at home, with effect from 9 July.