Wheat stocks fall to 8-year low
Global wheat supplies are tightening, with ending stocks projected to hit their lowest level since 2017, despite improved harvest forecasts in parts of Europe and Asia. The USDA’s latest report signals rising consumption and mixed outlooks across key producers. Markets, however, remain bearish.
EU harvest forecast raised
The US Agriculture Department (USDA) has increased its forecast for the EU wheat harvest for the third consecutive month, now estimating 137.25 million tonnes.
Mixed revisions across key producers
The forecast has also been adjusted upwards for Russia, Kazakhstan and Pakistan. However, for other countries like Canada, Ukraine and Iran, the harvest forecast has actually been lowered.
Global output slightly down
According to the USDA, this results in lower wheat production worldwide. USDA now projects a global wheat harvest of 808.55 million tons. That is slightly less than the 808.59 million tons of wheat in the previous forecast.
Smallest stock since 2017
As consumption increases, the global ending stock forecast for 2025-26 has been reduced by 1.2 million tonnes to 261.52 million tonnes. This marks the lowest ending stock for wheat worldwide since 2016-’17.
Prices fall despite tight supply
Despite this, trading on Euronext on Monday was characterised by pessimism. Positive harvest outlooks in the Northern Hemisphere and weak demand from importing countries led to drop in price.
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