ASF outbreaks in China: Effect on feed ingredients

29-08-2018 | |
Photo: Van Assendelft Fotografie
Photo: Van Assendelft Fotografie

As a result of the recent outbreaks of African Swine Fever (ASF) in China, the country’s demand for soybean meal will be reduced.

Reuters reports that China’s soybean futures fell as much as 1.8% to 3,588 yuan ($ 521.97) per tonne, their lowest level in nearly 10 years, before recovering slightly in afternoon trade. China’s rapeseed meal futures fell 3.2% to 2,339 yuan per tonne, their lowest in more than 6 months.

Already weak demand

The reason is the forecasts for a record US crop, but prices may also fell due to the recent outbreaks of African Swine Fever (ASF) in China. Pan Tiantian, analyst with Zheshang futures said to Reuters: “Pressure from the fundamentals here is already huge, and now there’s the ASF outbreaks. If the disease keeps spreading, it will have a bigger impact on the already weak demand for soybean meal and rapeseed meal.”

4 outbreaks in 1 month

ASF has entered China and it is very likely that the outbreaks will have far-reaching consequences for the swine situation in Asia. In total, since the 1st of August, in less than a month, 4 outbreaks have been reported on in China – in the provinces Liaoning, Henan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang province.

Farm diversity is problem

Science Magazine also reported about the ongoing outbreaks of the virus in China. The magazine quotes Prof Yang Hanchun, former IPVS president, who called the entry of ASF into China ‘really a very serious issue’. He added that, given the scale of China’s pork sector, the economic impact could be devastating.

Prof Yang also pointed to the fact that there is a huge diversity in farm types in China, from smallholders to large professional operations. Trying to find a tailored solution that suits them all would be the biggest challenge for China.

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Emmy Koeleman Freelance editor