EU harvest outlook brightens amid global strains

Despite ongoing weather challenges across Europe and beyond, the EU’s latest harvest forecasts offer a cautiously optimistic outlook. Wheat yields are slightly up, though drought still threatens parts of Central and Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, grain exports from Russia and Ukraine are falling. Global market uncertainty remains high.

Harvest forecasts play a key role. The European Commission’s June MARS report, released earlier this week, confirms earlier expectations. In fact, they are slightly higher. The 2025 EU soft wheat forecast now stands at 6.08 tonnes per hectare. This is slightly above last month’s estimate of 6.04 tonnes.

Southern Europe preforms strongly

Wheat harvest expectations are high in Spain, Portugal, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, and the Baltic states compared to previous years.

Water shortages hit yields

However, there are concerns regarding yields. Water shortages are reducing spring and summer crop yields in Belgium, central France, eastern Germany, western Poland, and Hungary. In eastern Ukraine, Turkey, Cyprus, and Morocco, drought and heat are resulting in poor yields of winter crops such as wheat and barley. Analysts predict a 5 to 10% lower grain harvest in Ukraine.

Russia grain exports declining

Meanwhile, it is clear that grain exports from Russia are falling behind. This is partly due to the export tax. SovEcon has reduced its estimate for Russian wheat exports from 1.5 million tons to 1.2 million tons in June. In June 2024, this figure was 4 million tons.

Ukraine faces exports dips

Exports from Ukraine are also expected to be 14% lower in the 2024–25 season, totalling 15.4 million tons. The outlook for the 2025–26 season remains uncertain due to the earlier drought.