Global wheat stocks fall as consumption climbs, says USDA
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has updated its wheat outlook for the 2025-26 season. The revised forecast points to lower global wheat stocks and higher consumption. The harvest estimate is only slightly higher than the previous May forecast.
Record harvest maintained
USDA expects a global wheat harvest of 808.59 million tons. In May, this figure stood at 808.52 million tons – still a record harvest.
EU wheat output rises
According to the latest WASDE report from USDA, the EU is set to harvest more wheat. The new forecast estimates 136.55 million tons of EU wheat, up from 136 million tons in May. In 2024, the EU harvest was relatively poor, with just 122.1 million tons.
Record wheat production for India
India is also boosting its wheat production. The forecast for Indian output has been raised from 117 million tons to a record 117.5 million tons.
Lower supply from Russia
The total supply (initial stock and harvest) is reduced by 1.2 million tons in the new forecast to 1,072.6 million tons of wheat. This is mainly due to lower initial stocks in Russia.
In May, Russia’s initial stocks were projected at 11.59 million tons. This has now been revised downward to 10.09 million tons. The USDA also expects lower ending stocks in Russia – 9.39 million tons, compared to 11.39 million in May.
Global reserves decline
Projected global closing stocks for 2025-26 have been reduced by 3 million tons to 262.76 million tons, due to lower closing stocks in Russia, the US, Iraq and Turkey. That is only slightly higher than the lowest ending stock worldwide since 2016-’17.
Forecasts for wheat consumption and trade rises
The forecast for global wheat consumption has been increased by 1.8 million tons, reaching 809.8 million tons, mainly due to higher consumption in Nigeria, Sudan, and India.
The USDA also predicts increased global wheat trade in the 2025-26 season. Larger exports by the US and EU will drive more wheat onto the global market. Compared to the previous forecast, trade is expected to rise by 1.3 million tons, reaching 214.33 million tons.
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