The appeal of Black Sea wheat

30-11-2022 | |
The harvest has started in Australia and soon the volumes will also increase there. Photo: Canva
The harvest has started in Australia and soon the volumes will also increase there. Photo: Canva

What is striking is that last week the American wheat price was lower than the European wheat price. Whereas now, the American wheat price is € 324 per ton ($ 775.50 per bushel).

In Paris, the December contract stands at € 326. 2 weeks ago, American wheat deliveries in December were still € 342 per ton (around 818.50 dollar cents per bushel). At that time, the Paris wheat price for the December contract was €324 per ton. A lower American price does not currently have many consequences for the European market, because both American and European wheat are more expensive than wheat from the Black Sea region.

Grain from the Black Sea region is attractive because of its large volumes. Egypt has bought 175,000 tons of wheat on the international stage, of which 35,000 tons come from Ukraine and 80,000 tons from Russia.

Australia harvest started

The harvest has started in Australia and soon the volumes will also increase there. Due to heavy rainfall in the east of Australia, quality losses for milling wheat are feared. In Western Australia, the harvest is good. If China starts buying wheat in Australia, the European market can serve North African countries. If China does import wheat from France, the EU balance sheet will become tighter.

European wheat prices

At the end of last week, European wheat prices recovered on the futures market in Paris, partly due to good export activity. The first expiring wheat contract in Paris was € 326.75 per ton on November 25. The March 2023 contract closed the trading week at €318.50. Those prices are reasonably comparable with the price level of more than a week earlier.

Ample corn balance

Due to the American holiday of Thanksgiving, there was little action on the American markets at the end of last week. Wheat prices fell because the price level was not competitive enough on the world market.

For maize, exports are much ahead on previous years. A lot of corn is coming to Europe from Brazil and Ukraine, which is pushing down prices somewhat. Although the global corn balance is more than enough, the wheat price is lower.

Smale
Annet Smale Editor Feed Markets


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