In the coming season 2022-23, lower production, smaller consumption, increasing trade and a shrinking of closing stocks can be expected for wheat worldwide.
That is the forecast of the United States Department of Agriculture USDA, in its latest Wasde monthly report, on the national and global agricultural products market. World wheat stocks have been revised down slightly to 267.3 million tons. The lower production in Argentina and Canada is only partly offset by a higher Australian harvest. In Argentina, drought causes a lower harvest (12.5 million tons) and in Canada (33.8 million tons), production has been adjusted and the third largest harvest is still expected. The Australian wheat harvest has been increased to a record 36.6 million tonnes.
The global consumption of wheat has fallen to 790 million tonnes, mainly due to lower animal feed and consumer consumption in Europe and Ukraine. Overall, global closing stocks of wheat have remained virtually flat at 267.3 million tons (-0.5 million tons) compared to the November release. Although the Wasde report did not bring major changes, traders are concerned about global demand due to weak economic growth. As a result, quotes on the US futures market fell last Friday.
Corn prices also fell after the publication of the Wasde report. US corn exports are estimated to be nearly 2 million tons lower this month at 52.7 million tons. The sale of Brazilian exports (47 million tons) will put more pressure on the market, as Brazil expects a record production of 126 million tons of corn.
The Brazilian soybean crop could reach a record with 152 million tons. As a result, the global closing stock in the 2022-23 season stands at 102.7 million tonnes.