Ukrainian grain exports are sliding

Ukraine will likely export only 5 million tons of grain in April 2024, against 8 million tons envisaged by earlier forecasts, Interfax, a local news outlet, reported, citing an anonymous source close to the matter.

“In the first 10 days, Ukraine was able to export about 2 million tons of grain through the ports. This allowed us to hope for a record export of 8 million tons per month. However, the damage is so significant that the delivery of grain, in particular to the port of Chernomorsk, will have to be suspended for several days,” the source said.

At the same time, the source expressed confidence that traders and agricultural holdings, whose terminals are located in the port of Chernomorsk, will quickly adapt to the situation and deliver products for loading onto ships by road.

“In any case, Ukraine will not stop exporting grain through the Black Sea Sea Canal,” he said.

Ukrainian officials reported that some port infrastructure in Chernomorsk was damaged during the April 11 Russian attack, not providing any details.

Better logistics, lower production

In recent months, Ukrainian grain export through the Odesa region seaports has surged, exceeding the level preceding the Russian exit from the UN-brokered Grain Deal in July 2022 and nearly reaching the 2021 figures.

“Over a 7 month period, 33.8 million tons of goods were exported through the Ukrainian corridor. This exceeds the volume of exports during the year of the Grain Deal operation,” Alexander Kubrakov, Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister has reported.

Chernomorsk is one of the 3 Ukrainian seaports in the Odesa region through which the country exports its grain.

In the meantime, the Ukrainian grain industry expects a drop in production this year owing to a depleting carryover stock and shrinking sowing areas.

According to the Ukrainian Agrarian Association, wheat production is expected to plummet by 3 to 4 million tons this year compared to 2023, as it will be sown on less territory. Ukrainian exports will see an even bigger impact. As explained by the organisation, in 2023, wheat exports were bolstered by huge carryover stocks, which are now limited to only 1 million tons.