Wheat production crisis in Russia and Ukraine threatens 2025 global exports
The current state of wheat production in Russia and Ukraine, which collectively contributes to 30% of global exports, is a cause for serious concern.
Ukraine wheat production is projected to plunge to 17.9 million tonnes in 2025, a 13-year low and by 23% compared with the previous year, USDA has forecasted, citing extremely dry soil conditions in recent weeks.
The Ukrainian Grain Association expects the 2025/2026 wheat harvest to be 22.5 million tonnes. However, Nikolay Gorbachev, the Grain Association chief, recently admitted that the drought in May could lower the forecasts by 10% to 15%.
If the weather worsens, the projections could be revised further downwards, Gorbachev noted.
Challenges for Ukraine’s grain production
Ukrainian grain production is hampered by a mix of economic reasons and unfavourable weather conditions.
“In Ukraine, wheat production in 2025 is expected to be below the average for the past 5 years. This is due to the impact of military action,” FAO said in its recent forecast.
Frosts disrupt Russia’s grain plans
In Russia, wheat production is also hampered by bad weather conditions and weak farming business profitability.
The Russian Institute for Agricultural Market Studies IKAR abandoned plans to revise the 2025/2026 grain harvest forecast upwards twice in the last few weeks, each time due to worsening weather, Dmitry Rylko, IKAR general director, said, citing frosts unusual for this time of the year.
Investment activity in wheat production has fallen to zero.”
– Arkady Zlochevskiy, President of the Russian Grain Union
Wheat output stalls
Under the existing forecasts, Russia will collect 129.5 million tonnes of grain, including 82.5 million tonnes of wheat, in 2025. In 2024, grain production stood at 128.5 million tonnes and 82.5 million tonnes of wheat, which was one of the lowest levels in recent years.
Farmers walk away from wheat production
A growing number of Russian farmers are pulling back from wheat production as profits dwindle — and in some cases, turn negative — Russian Grain Union President Arkady Zlochevskiy said at a recent press conference.
Wheat investments fall to zero
The Russian Grain Union has long been complaining that the government policy, including state price regulation on the domestic market and export duties on grain exports, has undermined business profitability.
“Investment activity in the wheat production has fallen to zero,” Zlochevskiy warned, adding that 125 million tonnes is the maximum the Russian grain industry could produce this year.
