High volatility on grain markets

High volatility on grain markets

The threat of war and profit taking are causing the wheat price to fluctuate considerably.

One day the price is greatly inflated due to the tensions between Russia and Ukraine, the next day it is mainly crashing and the price falls. But all in all, the wheat price has shown an upward trend over the past week.

Increased market fluctuations

Up until 2007 the price of wheat had relatively few exceptional outliers. At the turn of the century, the wheat price barely showed a ripple for years. In that light, the price movements of this season – just as in 2008, 2011 and 2012 – are particularly striking.

Markets in Paris & Chicago

In the past week, the wheat price on the futures market in Paris rose by 2 to 2.5%. This means that the prices at this stock exchange are already close to € 280 per tonne. In Chicago, prices rose slightly by about 1%. A price of $ 8 per bushel is thus again in sight. In combination with a recovering dollar, the price has already risen above € 260 per tonne.

Less export from Russia

In Russia, the indicator prices for exports have again fallen slightly. Now at $2.70 to $334.20 per tonne. However, due to the more expensive dollar, prices in euros are at their highest level, at more than €300 per tonne. Just like in week 2 of this year. Wheat exports from Russia rose last week to 23.6 million tons despite export duties that remain very high.

The Russian railways assume that exports will increase again in this calendar year. To this end, rail transport is estimated to be 3.5% higher than the 25 million tons moved by train last year.